Looking ahead to 2007, we expect some dramatic changes. Our house view is that the global economy will slow, but that the US will achieve a soft landing, rather than a deep recession. Part of the cushion given to the US will come from falling energy prices, and part will be from continued productivity gains in industry. But the real challenges for the world economy will have little to do with how the US economy ultimately behaves.
Indeed, much of 2007 will be driven by socio-political events rather than strictly economic behaviour. Why If 2005 and 2006 were the years of energy dominating global finance, 2007 is...
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