I think this is a robust forecast, says John Lipsky. It's not based on adventurous ideas. The forecast in question is his bullish view on the US economy, which he says will grow 3-3.5% this year. He adds that the economic pessimists on the US economy have been wrong, and a V-shaped recovery has clearly occurred.
The disappointment has been Europe, and it has been the drag on world growth not the US. However, in spite of uncertainties about Iraq, North Korea and other associated geopolitical risks, he thinks global growth will have reverted to around 2.5% to 3% by year end - which was its trend rate in the 1990s.
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