Evidence of green shoots -- early and tentative signs of macroeconomic stabilisation -- has surfaced in the most recent data on the Asia-Pacific economies. Could this be the prelude to recovery Statistical analysis suggests that the region may have bottomed out in fourth quarter 2008, but the risks to recovery remain significant.
Several indicators, both real and financial, have seen a slowdown in the rates of decline after virtually free-falling in the fourth quarter of 2008. Some have even changed direction, but it is too early to determine how sustainable these trends will be.
Analytically, the focus has been on the second derivative or the rate of change of the rate of change, which...
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