The possibility of an overheating China has emerged as one of the pre-eminent concerns of the 2004 economic calendar. Many point to the investment-fuelled 9.7% GDP growth in the first quarter as a key indicator that the PRC could pop at any moment. Others suggest that excessive reliance on imports of raw materials and accelerating inflation are signs the China story could take a hit.
Speculation about what kind of landing China will experience, when it will happen and how the Asian and global economies will weather the expected blow, are rampant. But there is a near unanimous consensus that China will experience a slowdown in GDP growth to annualised range...
